Allies in Uncertain Times

Sophie Lohosha & Yes Lima

How U.S. Unpredictability Is Reshaping European Strategy

Timeframe: 03/01/2026 – 10/05/2026

United States of America · Crisis Management · Issue II

Key Insights

• Main question: How has the EU responded to perceived unpredictability in U.S. foreign policy under the Trump administration?
• Argument: Unpredictability erodes credibility, generating alliance uncertainty incentivizing allies to diversify partnerships rather than abandon existing alliances.
• Conclusion: In response to unpredictability in U.S. foreign policy, the EU has not abandoned the transatlantic alliance but has instead diversified its partnerships and developed limited strategic autonomy.

Definition

Credibility of commitments is the perceived reliability that a state will follow through on promises and threats, based on consistent behavior, enabling belief, deterrence, and alliance reassurance.

Despite concerns about the reliability and predictability of U.S. foreign policy, the European Union cannot fully abandon the transatlantic alliance or substitute U.S. security guarantees.

Documents: 📂 Source Document