Escalation in the Dark

Ylva Vesterholm

Escalation in the Dark: China’s Nuclear Expansion and the Collapse of Predictability

Timeframe: 01/01/2018 – 01/01/2030

China · Non-Proliferation of WMDs · Issue I

Key Insights

• This article asks how China’s nuclear expansion affects escalation risks in a crisis, particularly over Taiwan. It argues that the key shift is not the size of China’s arsenal, but the growing uncertainty surrounding decision-making, driven by reduced transparency and compressed timelines. It concludes that deterrence is becoming less predictable and increasingly shaped by perception, raising the risk of miscalculation.

Definition

Launch-on-warning Launch-on-warning is a nuclear posture in which a state launches its weapons upon detecting an incoming attack, before confirming whether the threat is real.

Dual-capable systems are missiles that can carry both conventional and nuclear warheads, creating ambiguity in crisis situations and increasing the risk of misinterpretation and unintended escalation.

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