Author: Naomi Adeoti
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Gulf States and the Battle for East Africa
Gulf states have become the Horn of Africa’s most consequential external actors — but how is their influence actually operating? Infrastructure development, farmland acquisition, and security partnerships combine into a model of embedded influence that accumulates leverage over time while bypassing formal institutions. As the Saudi-UAE rivalry hardens into competing blocs, the Horn is increasingly…
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Climate Linked Instability in the Sahel and Horn
How does climate stress reshape patterns of authority and instability in high-risk African states? Using Burkina Faso and Somalia, the brief shows that climate shocks amplify existing governance weaknesses, alter mobility, and expand the space for non-state armed actors. Climate change is a multiplier: instability emerges not from climate stress alone, but from how it…
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Burkina Faso’s Militarised Turn
1.What does Burkina Faso’s shift to military governance reveal about its political trajectory and the future of governance in the Sahel? 2.The regime frames militarised governance as restored sovereignty, rejecting Western conditionality, while legitimising itself through nationalism, anti-colonial rhetoric, and closer ties with Russia. 3.This strategy strengthens regime survival, but risks deepening authoritarianism, and normalising…