Tag: Alliance Building
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One partnership – Three trajectories?
Main question: Why were the protests in Moldova (2009) and Ukraine (2014) successful, while they were suppressed in Belarus (2020)?
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Redistributing Influence
How has the war in Ukraine transformed Russia’s influence on the Korean Peninsula? The article argues that Russia is redistributing its influence toward politically aligned and anti-Western states. The shift from South Korea to North Korea reflects a broader Eurasian realignment. The paper concludes that Moscow is strengthening ties with states such as North Korea,…
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The Mutual Industrial Resilience Program
How can the EU overcome structural vulnerabilities while reforming its slow, politically driven enlargement? The EU must deploy the €30B Industrial Resilience Facility and an EIB-backed 70% political risk insurance mechanism to embed candidates into European energy, technology, and manufacturing value chains. Enlargement must evolve into a mutual security strategy; by tying candidate stability directly…
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Bridging Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific Security
RQ: Can NATO and the IP4 build a deeper, structured partnership now that the Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific security theatres have merged? Arg: The political and institutional conditions exist for comprehensive NATO-IP4 integration, offering notable advantages in supply chains, maritime security, intelligence, and deterrence. Conc: As confidence in American leadership of NATO erodes, institutionalising direct NATO-IP4…
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Hungary After Orbán
Did U.S. support influence Hungary’s 2026 election outcome? U.S. backing of Orbán added symbolic pressure and may have weakened his sovereignty narrative, but domestic factors (economic issues, corruption concerns, and voter fatigue) were decisive. Thus, the election reflects the limits of U.S. influence and shows a shift toward pragmatic, institution-based engagement over leader-focused alliances.
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Beyond Succession
Main question: Do Kim Ju-ae’s appearances signal succession, or something broader about regime strategy? Argument: Her visibility is less about naming a successor than projecting dynastic continuity, strategic confidence, and strengthened legitimacy amid growing military power and ties with Russia/China. Conclusion: This signals a more self-assured North Korea, potentially reducing incentives for diplomatic engagement.
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The Gulf Cooperation Council Explained
Main question: Why do Gulf states cooperate within the GCC despite internal rivalries and regional instability? Argument: The GCC functions as a framework for security coordination, economic integration, and regime survival, driven by shared threats rather than deep unity. Conclusion: The GCC shows that regional cooperation can persist even with limited integration, but remains constrained…
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Taiwan’s Big Brother
Main question: Does Taiwan prefer partnership with the U.S. or China? Argument: Shifting opinions and geopolitics in East Asia affect Taiwan’s confidence and trust with the U.S. Conclusion: Taiwan still prefers U.S. partnership due to their decades’ long relationship.
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What Post-Brexit Britain Can Learn From the Past
1. NATO (1949) fulfilled Britain’s core strategy: balance Europe, contain Russia, and keep the US engaged. 2. Historically, Britain built power through empire, naval strength, and alliances—especially with the US. 3. Today, it must adapt this strategy to new global realities and rebuild domestic strength.
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Gulf States and the Battle for East Africa
Gulf states have become the Horn of Africa’s most consequential external actors — but how is their influence actually operating? Infrastructure development, farmland acquisition, and security partnerships combine into a model of embedded influence that accumulates leverage over time while bypassing formal institutions. As the Saudi-UAE rivalry hardens into competing blocs, the Horn is increasingly…