Tag: Trade Policy
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WTO Appellate Body Crisis: Who Really Loses?
How has the paralysis of the WTO’s Appellate Body since 2019 affected members unequally? While larger economies have adapted through the MPIA and bilateral settlements, smaller members lack the legal capacity and leverage to navigate the post-AB order. With the US absent from the MPIA and reform efforts stalled, the crisis has shifted the trading…
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The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA)
Main Question – How does the USMCA benefit its partner countries? Argument – The USMCA benefits the partner countries by enhancing protections for business owners, innovators, and labourers. Conclusion – The USMCA helps the partner countries enjoy special privileges that boost local economies and protect individuals from employer abuse.
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The Weak Yen Trap
Q: Does Japan’s dollar exposure prevent the BoJ from raising rates? Arg: Low rates fuel carry trades that weaken the yen, while $1T+ in U.S. Treasuries ties Japan to U.S. monetary cycles — a self-reinforcing trap. Concl: Gradual normalisation is the best exit, but political pressures keep the status quo attractive.
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The Euro as an international currency
– Should the ECB push the Euro internationally to incentivise smaller economies to take the Euro on as their anchor currency? – The general trend point towards a de-risking internationally with countries increasingly preferring baskets over a single currency, and the most attractive policy remains domestic stability. – The ECB should not let itself be…
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The Euro: Power without Autonomy?
Main question: Why has the euro’s monetary power not translated into full EU strategic autonomy? Argument: While the euro functions as a growing geoeconomic tool (sanctions, trade, finance), its impact is constrained by EMU’s incomplete architecture, dollar dominance, and fragmented political and financial integration. Conclusion: Without deeper fiscal, financial, and political union, the euro cannot…
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Digital Currencies and their Implications
1. Asks how the introduction of the digital euro could impact International Relations, through changes in monetary power. 2. The digital euro could strengthen the European Union by increasing monetary sovereignty, reducing reliance on U.S.-based payment systems, and expanding the EU’s regulatory influence globally. 3. The paper concludes that the digital euro could enhance the…
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Dollar Dominance and Competing Currencies
What is the future of dollar dominance? This report argues the dollar will not be displaced despite geopolitical tensions and digital innovation, due to its structural and infrastructural advantages. Instead, the system is becoming more fragmented and multipolar. By 2050, the dollar remains central but but no longer uncontested.
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Is the world moving beyond SWIFT?
Can CIPS, SPFS, and mBridge realistically replace SWIFT as the backbone of global financial messaging and settlement? Each alternative serves a distinct purpose: RMB internationalisation, sanctions resilience, or CBDC-based settlement, but none replicates SWIFT’s scale, and most still depend on it. The payment infrastructure is evolving toward multipolarity, not replacement — parallel systems are emerging,…